The Declarer (Floyd McWilliams' Blog)

Thursday, August 31, 2006


Cool stuff over at USS Mariner recently:


  • Dave Cameron summarizes a Hardball Times article on pitching outcomes:


    For instance, what are the possible events in an at-bat that can occur?

    A pitch can be thrown for a ball.
    A pitch can be thrown for a strike.
    A pitch can be swung at and missed.
    The ball can be hit on the ground.
    The ball can be hit on a line.
    The ball can be hit in the air.

    ...

    Which of these six outcomes are positive for the pitcher? Called strike, swinging strike, and groundball.

    Which of these six outcomes are positive for the hitter? Called ball, line drive, and flyball.

    If we can effectively determine which pitchers maximize their value in the “good outcomes” and minimize their harm in the “bad outcomes”, we can get a pretty firm grasp on who has pitching talent and who does not. Thankfully, Dave Studeman wrote a fantastic article called “Whats A Batted Ball Worth” in the 2006 Hardball Times Annual, and it includes the following run value chart.

    ...


    Line Drive: .356 - in other words, an average line drive is worth 35% of one run.
    HBP: .342
    Non-Intentional Walk: .315
    Intentional Walk: .176
    Outfield Fly: .035
    Groundball: -.101
    Bunts: -.103
    Infield Fly: -.243
    Strikeout: -.287




  • Julio Franco turned 48 last week. He is a bench player for the Mets and is hitting .270 this season. At the age of 48. In a game comments thread, "scraps" went completely nuts and listed Franco's contemporaries and juniors:


    Julio Franco played with Mike Hargrove, you know. Not for, with. Julio Franco played with Toby Harrah and Andre Thonrton. Julio Franco played with Bake McBride and Bert Blyleven and Steve Carlton.

    Julio Franco played with Pete Rose.

    Remember Neal Heaton? Neal Heaton played with Julio Franco. Neal Heaton is younger than Julio Franco. Brook Jacoby is younger than Julio Franco. Mel Hall and Joe Carter are younger than Julio Franco. Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby, and George Bell are all younger than Julio Franco. Jimmie Key is younger than Julio Franco. Tony Fernandez is three years younger than Julio Franco. Cecil Fielder is five years younger than Julio Franco.

    Alvin Davis is younger than Julio Franco. So is Jim Presley. Spike Owen, Ivan Calderon, Harold Reynolds, Darnell Coles, Mike Moore, Mark Langston, and Mike Morgan are younger than Julio Franco. Danny Tartabull is four years younger than Julio Franco. So is Edwin Nunez.

    Don Mattingly is younger than Julio Franco. Henry Cotto is younger than Julio Franco. Did you know that Bob Melvin is younger than Julio Franco? Cal Ripken is younger than Julio Franco. Larry Sheets and Storm Davis are younger than Julio Franco. Roch Gedman and Oil Can Boyd are younger than Julio Franco. Mike Greenwell is five years younger than Julio Franco. So is Bret Saberhagen.

    Mark Gubicza is younger than Julio Franco. Devon White and Dick Schofield are four years younger than Julio Franco. Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill are younger than Julio Franco. Ozzie Guillen is five years younger than Julio Franco.

    Kent Hrbek is younger than Julio Franco. So are Greg Gagne and Tom Brunansky and the late Kirby Puckett. Frank Viola is younger than Julio Franco. Mickey Tettleton is younger than Julio Franco, and so are Curt Young and Steve Ontiveros. Jose Rijo is six years younger than Julio Franco.

    Steve Buechele is younger than Julio Franco. Oddibe McDowell is four years younger than Julio Franco. Terry Pendleton, Vince Coleman, and Andy Van Slyke are younger than Julio Franco. Willie McGee is younger than Julio Franco. Wally Backman, Howard Johnson, Daryl Strawberry, Ron Darling, Rick Aguilera, Roger McDowell, and Calvin Schiraldi are younger than Julio Franco. Lenny Dystra and Sid Fernandez are four years younger than Julio Franco. Dwight Gooden is six years younger.

    Jesse Orosco is not younger than Julio Franco.


    Another commenter noted that the Mets "came up with a 6-degrees for Franco… “Six degrees of separation connecting Franco to Deacon White, recorder of major league baseball’s first-ever hit. That’s right: Franco played with Tug McGraw, who played with Yogi Berra, who played with Bob Newsom, who played with Charley O’Leary, who played with Sam Thompson, who played with White — who, in 1871, inaugurated this league."


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